HM Treasury

02.23

In the WPQ, the Exchequer Secretary to the Treasury James Cartlidge gave response to AIR’s Oxford Economics Report.

In his response, James Cartlidge claimed the Treasury do not recognise these figures. The OBR, using a higher than usual price elasticity of demand to account for VAT-free shopping being targeted at luxury goods, put this figure at 20,000-30,000 for non-EU visitors, which would imply a figure of 60,000-80,000 of total visitors (EU and non-EU). That is about 5% of the report’s 1.6 million estimate. Reflecting this difference in estimates of additional visitors could lead to their report overstating the potential extra revenue by around £1 billion.

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